Wetter Habitat Should Boost Duck Production

Timely rains in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and North Dakota aid renesting ducks, duckling survival

The 33.4 million breeding ducks that were counted in the 2026 annual survey are not the total population of ducks in the fall flight. The survey, which is flown in May, does not account for the millions of juvenile birds produced by this year’s nesting hens, which is why habitat conditions in the prairie pothole region are so important during spring and early summer.

The May pond count in the PPR is a key indicator of breeding habitat conditions and potential production. This spring, the pond counts increased 14% from last year. Prairie Canada saw a 29% increase in pond counts this year while Montana and the Dakotas experienced a 10% decrease.

Despite the improvements in Canada, Joel Brice, Delta’s chief conservation officer, doesn’t expect a bumper crop of young ducks this year. He said fair conditions that persisted this spring across the Dakotas — where millions of ducks hatch each year — mean duck production overall has likely been average.

“Additional water in Canada is positive, though it doesn't generally produce the same number of ducks we see when the U.S. prairies are wet,” Brice said. “Predation rates are typically higher in Canada, so you miss out on the enhanced productivity of the Dakotas.”

Rain eventually filled wetland basins in the U.S. prairies, mostly across northern North Dakota, but not until after many ducks had begun to nest. The wetter conditions, although late, were still beneficial, mainly by increasing brood survival and offering better renesting opportunities. 

The North Dakota Game and Fish Department’s annual survey conducted in July showed a 55% increase in broods from the previous year. NDGFD projected the state’s fall flight this year will contain 4 million ducks, 9% higher than last year.

“While we're probably looking at an average hatch overall in North Dakota, conditions improved enough to leave room for a better-than-expected fall flight,” Brice said.

Many of the abundant ponds counted in May across Canada were replenished by summer rains. Derek Hallgrimson, Delta’s Canadian regional biologist, spent the summer working in the wetlands of Alberta and Saskatchewan. He said the prairies in the northern tier of those two provinces have benefited from persistent precipitation.

“When we did our brood count surveys in July in Alberta, there were still a lot of ducks on the nest,” Hallgrimson said. “The wet conditions allowed quite a bit of renesting in wetlands stretching from Edmonton in Alberta to the Saskatchewan border.”

Areas of southwestern Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan that were dry last year have markedly improved due to consistent precipitation. Around Minnedosa, Manitoba, Delta’s Canadian regional biologist Zane Zondervan has witnessed evidence of good brood survival and renesting efforts, which he credits to heavy June rains that recharged wetlands.

“As I’ve been in the field in August, almost every pothole has had several birds on them,” Zondervan said. “I saw several broods that were only a few weeks old.”

Although up to 70% of ducks harvested originate in the PPR, broods are raised across northern stretches of the continent. Many of these regions had abundant waterfowl habitat this spring, continuing into the summer.

In portions of the Great Lakes, spring habitat conditions started off stellar as ducks arrived. Officials in Michigan reported the state was 40% wetter than in 2025, leading to a 250% increase in breeding waterfowl over last year. Wisconsin and Minnesota also reported wet springs and increases in breeding ducks. Regular storms kept many of these wetlands in good shape throughout the summer.

In Ontario, Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes, and Maine, USFWS officials estimated that duck production would range from fair to good. But on the West Coast, California, Oregon, and Washington continued to experience drought conditions that likely dampened duck production.

“This year isn’t the best we’ve seen in terms of duck production,” Zondervan said. “But in some of the drier areas of the prairies that got wetter this year, the outlook is definitely better than in previous years.” — Jonathan Olivier